The Horn of Africa Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Emirate Hybrid-Warfare and Regime Change against Somalia. By Dr. Bischara A. EGAL. Re-edited , july 7th, 2020

The Emirate Hybrid-Warfare and Regime Change  against  Somalia. By Dr. Bischara A. EGAL. Re-edited , july 7th, 2020

“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”George Santayana

Introduction:

The term “hybrid warfare” describes a strategy that employs conventional military force supported by irregular and cyber warfare tactics. … This change now requires the U.S. and its allies to adopt a new legal, psychological, and strategic understanding of warfare and use of force, particularly by state actors. The term “hybrid warfare” describes a strategy that employs conventional military means as well as irregular and cyber warfare tactics. Describes a strategy.1,2)

The Horn of Africa region has recently been the stage for a number of international actors that aim to expand their foreign policy reach. This can be seen from Turkey’s increasing relations with Somalia, China and Russia’s (Zylac-northern united Somalia) decision to establish military bases and the United Arab Emirates’ economic, political and military activities taking place particularly in Somalia.

And Since The United Arab Emirates lost its political and geostrategic position in Somalia in 2018, it has used all kinds of propaganda campaigns, financial enticement and hybrid -warfare against the FG in Mogadishu through its moneyed  local proxies and with  full -spectrum of political crisis, fake  democracy public demonstrations and disruptions which are intended for to smear  the good name of current  government under leadership of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmojo’s Nabad & Nolool party(NNP). Employing its vast cyber warfare network and resources it has more social media accounts than other GCC country,  spreading misinformation and disinformation propaganda against its opponents i.e., Qatar, Houtis and Somalia

More seriously, the UAE has injected itself in current Somali socio-political, security, and governance issues since early 2019 and culminating this year, bringing vast amount of political slush funds in order to destabilize, create social unrest the Federal Government and FM states and funding to local proxy politicians for outright regime changes in Somalia.

UAE has spent enourmouse amount of funds, diplomatic efforts to derail initial Turkish  and latter Ethiopian re-conciliation   efforts between Somalia- Somaliland  from its progressive course, and to arrest FG’s increasingly positive and optimistic influence on  Federal Member States FMS , public  opinion , and of the world community . They invent and support/finance all imaginable and unimaginable adversaries of Somalia locally and internationally.

UAE debacle in Somalia

“Since late 2019 when the Somali federal govt., and the breakaway region of ‘Somaliland’ which was mediated by Ethiopian PM Abiyi Ahmed, initially in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia  and subsequently to Djibouti city, Djibouti republic  where President Omar Ismael Ghelle hosted and chaired the final stage of the conference.  The Talks between Somali and the breakaway Somaliland region was hailed as historic, as kick-starting a political dialogue between the two to resolve their longstanding differences”.4)

Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi Formajo and Somaliland leader Moussa Bihi Abdi met on June 14th, in Djibouti, their neighbor in the Horn of Africa, in the presence of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel laureate who in 2020 brought the two sides together in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital.3)

UAE using its fast networks of local proxies and available financial resources at its disposal  it has created dangerous political, social and security discourse among the central govt. and the FM states as well.  UAE and its allies local proxies are doing all they can, to smear to derail somali FG ‘s progressive course, and to arrest its increasingly positive and optimistic influence in uniting all somali factions in peace and unity  .

There is unconfirmed report that   the UAE has taken steps in bringing  lots of slush money over 700 million in order to use its Geo-strategically and political goals in Somali, Aiming to use its  local collaborators as proxies. the Abu Dhabi administration wants to cover up its failed FPolicy in  Somalia with the illusion of  creating dissolution of  federal Somali parliament and resignation of current Govt., of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo  by creating  a constitutional crisis and thus a coup d’état where speakers of both (upper +lower) Hses  will claim personal  insecurities and threats to their safety and seek political asylum overseas in western countries . The United Arab Emirates  govt. ratchet it up its hybrid war on both  Djibouti and Somalia with a war chest of $700 million dollars since mid-may, 2020, taking advantage of internal discourses and  social up heavls in both nations. 4)

  1. B) Local Oppostion trying to capitalize diplomatic row

“Somali opposition groups are seizing on the soured relations between Abdullahi Mohamed’s government and Abu Dhabi by accusing the government of actively moving towards the Turkish-Qatari alliance and thus endangering their vital relationship with other Gulf States. Ahmed Madobe, President of the Jubaland region in Somalia, expressed his support for the UAE back in May, while criticizing the diplomatic strategy of Mogadishu. Abdullahi Mohamed’s rivals will likely continue to exploit this fractured relationship as they push for increased support from Gulf States in their efforts to expand influence within Somalia. If the UAE develops more relationship with local leaders, like it has done with Puntland, then it risks calling into question the legitimacy of Abdullahi Mohamed’s government and thus provides more incentive for conflict and power grabbing”.5)

The UAE needs to be aware that it is playing with fire if it exploits these divisions. Disrupting the fragile state of stability that Somalia is slowly working towards does nothing for the UAE’s ambition to be seen as a key peace broker in the region. The same can be said over the UAE’s refusal to take responsibility for its role in militant funding in the country. 6,7).

The United Arab Emirates shouldn’t use  Somalia as a pawn in its inter-GCC war since Somalia has nothing to gain from siding with either  of UAE or Qatar.

Conculussions:

Somalia is not going bk to post-2018 Geostrategic and diplomatic relations with UAE, because of what Mogadishu perceives as an Agenda of Somali colonization if not outright  balkanizati0on-  A ruthless and undemocratic Hegemonic power of latent imperialism by a fellow Arab.

“It is clear that there are deepening tensions between the UAE and two strategic players in the Horn of Africa, namely Somalia and Djbouti. It can be said that there are three major reasons for that. First of all, the UAE does not respect the national sovereignty of these countries and prioritizes its interests even if they contradict with these countries’ national sovereignty. The second reason is related to the nature of the UAE activities in the region. The Somalia and Djibouti governments are not comfortable with the UAE-sponsored ports and military bases, mainly because of their long-term negative impacts on these countries. The final reason is that there are a number of emerging international actors such as Turkey, Russia and China, which have developed good relations with Somalia and Djibouti. This has caused them to reconsider their relations with aggressive actors in the region such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia”. 8, 9, 10)

Foot Notes:

 

By: Prof.Dr. Bischara A. EGAL,

Executive director & Researcher, The Horn of Africa Center for Strategic & Intl Studies(Horncsis.org)

www.HornCsis.Org

E-mail:drbischara@gmail.com

N.B: Part2 – UAE involvement in Djibouti Crisis

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