THE EXPANSION OF MILITARY BASES IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: ANALYSIS OF ITS CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES TO ETHIOPIA’S POLICY IN THE REGION byADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITYCOLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCESDEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONALRELATIONSTHE EXPANSION OF MILITARY BASES IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: ANALYSIS OF ITS CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES TO ETHIOPIA’S POLICY IN THE REGIONBYESRAEL YOHANNESJune, 2018 ADDIS ABABA

For centuries, the Horn of Africa has been at the center of global powers attention. This is mainly the result of the significant geopolitical location that the region holds. Since the dawn of the new millennium, global powers interest towards the region has immensely increased because of various phenomena’s taking place in and beyond the region. This increased interest has taken the shape of physical military presence. As a result the Horn of Africa has become one of the most militarized regions in the World. Currently in Djibouti, Eritrea and Somaliland only there are ten military bases established by nine different states with other imminent bases expected. As core part of the region, Ethiopia has a number of foreign policy interests in the region mainly in terms of security, port as well as economy. Hence, the main objective of this study is to examine the potential and actual opportunities as well as challenges that could be brought by the expansion of foreign military bases in the Horn of Africa to Ethiopia’s Foreign Policy towards the region. As the research intends to examine the impacts of expansion of military bases in the Horn of Africa to Ethiopia’s policy towards the region, the study has employed qualitative methodology and accordingly content analysis as well as key informant interviews has been used. Accordingly the study identified that in terms of challenges in the security area, foreign powers rivalry and rising of regional tension and instability, encirclement of Ethiopia by Gulf Powers and its impact on Ethiopia’s Foreign policy orientation towards the Horn of Africa and finally the presence of Gulf powers and the threat of expansion of fundamentalism are the main threats to Ethiopia’s foreign policy interest in the region. Regarding Ethiopia’s policy of securing reliable port access, even if the threat varies from one country to another, the expansion of foreign military bases presents enormous challenge. The study also found out that the expansion of foreign military bases in the region could be challenge to the dominant role of Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa, as powerful stakeholders’ involvement increases and nations of the region dependency on stationing powers increases. In terms of opportunity, the study also identified mainly two opportunities that could be utilized by Ethiopia to achieve its policy interest in the region; the increasing rivalry of stationing powers to expand their influence and the resultant increase in their economic engagement and the presence of China and its One Belt and One Road project and finally the presence of potential as well as actual pa … View full abstract